The critical minerals challenge has shifted from a question of supply adequacy to one of supply chain security and diversification, with the real risk being concentration rather than scarcity. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are experiencing significant structural gaps that are challenging to close or meet within the project timelines required by grid developers and battery manufacturers. At the same time, with permitting timelines averaging 16 years for new US mining projects and declining ore grades, the minerals required for the energy transition are much harder to develop than what transition models typically assume.

 As China processes over 60% of global rare earths and holds a large share of lithium and cobalt refining, this concentration risk is evolving beyond a simple supply risk. It is now influencing OEM procurement strategies, government policies, and investment directions toward North America, Africa, and Australia. Companies that haven’t assessed their exposure at the processing and refining levels face greater risks than their supplier lists indicate. The industry players must focus on:

• Mapping supply risk where concentration is most acute, which is at the processing and refinery stages, not only at upstream extraction.
• Assessing early-stage mining and exploration assets prior to strategic buyers’ involvement, as valuations begin to reflect scarcity.
• Evaluating direct lithium extraction and alternative sourcing technologies against realistic commercialization timelines.
• Building offtake frameworks that ensure supply security without locking in unfavorable long-term pricing.