By 2040, synthetic refrigerants may disappear. Will your cooling strategy be ready?
“The global phase-down of conventional refrigerants is more than a regulatory change. It marks a pivotal moment for the VRF industry, challenging long-standing assumptions about cooling technologies and pushing the industry to rethink the way buildings will be cooled in the future. By 2040, synthetic refrigerants may disappear entirely, and the industry will look very different from today.”
Cooling has become something we simply expect; it works quietly in the background, almost unnoticed. But what if that experience changes over the next 10 to 15 years? What if buildings don’t just regulate temperatures, but intelligently adapt to occupancy patterns, weather conditions, energy demands, and the availability of renewable power? In this episode of Futurecast, we explore the refrigerant transition as a trigger for a much wider industry shift, examining whether we are simply replacing one refrigerant with another or beginning to rethink how buildings will be cooled in the future.
Our expert, Menno Vanderhoff, who has spent decades working across sustainable HVAC innovations, heat pumps, and natural refrigerants, explains what this transformation means for manufacturers, architects, engineers, and the broader cooling ecosystem.
From the Recording:
Host: Many people see the refrigerant transition primarily as a regulatory change. Is this simply another technology cycle, or are we witnessing a broader shift in the way the industry will approach thermal comfort over the next decade?
Menno Vanderhoff/Expert: “We are no longer at another refrigerant change transition. We are going into a new area of the VRF industry. There are actually two different options: one is CO2, the only natural refrigerant, which will stay forever in the VRF. The other is that the VRF gets more competition from hydronic systems. Those are the two changes that are going to happen in the foreseeable future. That means a major change.”
Host: As AI, intelligent buildings, and integrated energy systems mature, could we eventually move beyond selling HVAC equipment towards delivering thermal comfort as a service?
Menno Vanderhoff/Expert: “Two topics here. One, from the perspective of the building, we need to work on thermal mass and avoid excessive glazing. Two, from the perspective of comfort, water-based systems provide radiant comfort, which VRF doesn’t do. Radiant temperature, guaranteed by underfloor heating or chilled beam systems, increases the comfort level of people. This is a feature not yet seen a lot in VRF systems.”
Host: What do you think would be the one transformation in the VRF industry by 2040 that would surprise us the most?
Menno Vanderhoff/Expert: “In 15 years’ time, we will not have any synthetic refrigerant anymore. For environmental reasons, due to PFAS, and by law, these refrigerants will disappear. That’s a very big, major change for all these millions of VRF systems sold throughout the world today.”
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The VRF industry’s future will not rely on minor refrigerant changes but will instead involve a major rethinking of building cooling strategies. By 2040, the industry is anticipated to transition from merely selling equipment to providing comfort as a comprehensive service. Success will mainly depend upon the capacity to adapt to regulatory changes, incorporate natural refrigerants, and redefine thermal comfort within an integrated energy ecosystem.
About the Author(s)
Menno Vanderhoff is the Chief Executive Director of TripleAqua Consulting Ltd., with decades of experience in sustainable HVAC innovations, heat pumps, and natural refrigerants. Sandhya Saraswat is a Manager, Healthcare Innovation Strategy at Stellarix, guiding clients through emerging care models and strategic healthcare transformation.