Vertical Farming’s First Wave Promised to Feed the World. The Next One Must Prove It Can Feed a Business
“Vertical farming is at a critical inflection point. After a cycle of hype, high-profile failures, and a necessary reality check, the industry is shifting from over-engineered promises to operational fundamentals. The potential is proven; now the question is about viable business models, strategic partnerships, and scaling pathways.”
Vertical farming was once hailed as a revolutionary solution to food security. Today, the conversation has shifted from whether vertical farming is an exciting idea to what role it will realistically play in the future of food. In this episode of Futurecast, we delve into lessons learned from the first wave, the capital and infrastructure required to scale, the role of technology and AI in shaping the next phase, and the 2050 vision.
Our experts, Laura van de Kreeke, Co-founder of Growy, and Endre Harnes, Chief Financial Officer at Avisomo, discuss what it takes to build commercially viable, scalable vertical farming businesses.
From the Recording:
Sandhya Saraswat/Host: If vertical farming succeeds at its fullest potential, what does that future look like, and what might consumers realistically be eating in 2050 because of it?
Laura van de Kreeke/Expert: “In 2050, vertical farming will be a big part of agriculture, not fully replace it. It will focus on producing more sensitive crops, such as leafy greens, berries, and other high-value crops. Hopefully, eventually mushrooms and tomatoes. It will add to local food sustainability and security. It will be part of the bigger system, increasing the amount of fresh food produced in a more sustainable way, and hopefully fully pesticide-free.”
Endre Harnes/Expert: “I absolutely agree. The food system itself will have a different layout and functionality. Vertical farming is one of the most efficient approaches to address challenges like fertilizer runoff, pesticide use, and biodiversity decline. Also, due to the ability to control climates and growing parameters, we will be adding new varieties with more functional qualities and customized properties.”
Sandhya Saraswat/Host: What did the industry misunderstand in its first phase, and what has this correction taught us about building the next generation of vertical farming businesses?
Endre Harnes: “The primary reason why the space was not redeveloped from the bottom up is due to financing models. Free capital from venture capital was handed out too easily to companies that hadn’t verified their technological setup and business model, creating a perfect storm when interest rates rose.”
Laura van de Kreeke: “We overpromised and underdelivered. The focus was always on beautiful high-tech systems and producing food futuristically, but never on producing good, sustainable, and affordable food for everyone.”
Sandhya Saraswat/Host: What capabilities are still missing for vertical farming to scale meaningfully; in energy systems, automation, distribution, policy support, or operational economics?
Experts: All of them.
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Vertical farming is moving from a tech-driven vision to a market-driven reality. For industry stakeholders, the path forward depends on forging strategic partnerships and securing the right kind of investments. Success now, in 2045 and beyond, will belong to those who establish their position in the food value chain by providing sustainable, affordable produce that truly satisfies consumer demand, rather than merely focusing on integrating the latest technologies.
About the Author(s)
Laura van de Kreeke is a Co-founder of Growy, focusing on building highly automated vertical farming systems designed for commercial viability at scale. Endre Harnes is the Chief Financial Officer at Avisomo, specializing in commercial strategy and market entry for vertical farming businesses. Sandhya Saraswat is Manager, Healthcare Innovation Strategy at Stellarix.